Challenging growing conditions continue for Argentina  

The weather continues much the same in January 2023 as it has thus far this season in South America with hotter and drier weather in Argentina and portions of southern Brazil, while central Brazil is wetter with few heat stresses. Much of the Argentinian growing regions are experiencing drought, which is severely impacting crops.

According to a Jan. 5, 2023, report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 38% of the soybean crop and 32% of the corn crop in the major-producing areas of Argentina were in poor to very poor condition. Unfortunately, the substantial rainfall needed to break this drought cycle looks unlikely in the near-term. Even if meaningful rainfall were to return to the area, it may be too late in the season at this point to salvage some crops. 

Hot and dry conditions extend up into southern Brazil, particularly Rio Grande do Sul, where the second full week of January 2023 is forecast to be the second hottest and second driest in over 30 years, according to data from WeatherTrends360. 

Rainfall has been beneficial across much of central Brazil this growing season. Soil moisture looks healthy as we near the planting season for the second corn crop (safrinha), which is planted after soybeans are harvested. The safrinha crop, which accounts for a higher percentage of Brazil’s total corn production, should go into the ground during the ideal planting window as soybeans were planted on time. Planting within the ideal window allows the crop to mature before the dry season sets in across Brazil. 

The dry weather pattern in Argentina and southern Brazil is typical of conditions expected during a La Niña. Fortunately, there are several signals that La Niña is finally on the verge of breaking down. In 2023, WeatherTrends360 expects La Niña to decay with a weak El Niño possibly developing later in the year. While the decay of La Niña will be a little too late to spare crops in Argentina this season, next season should bring more favorable weather conditions to the country’s growing regions.

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