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3 Big Things Today, January 13, 2023

Soybeans, Grains Rise Overnight; Weekly Export Sales of Corn, Beans Decline

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Rise in Overnight Trading

Soybeans and grains were higher in overnight trading after the U.S. Department of Agriculture unexpectedly reduced its outlook for ending stockpiles.

Soybean inventories at the end of the 2022-2023 marketing year was pegged by USDA at 210 million bushels, below trade expectations for 236 million bushels. The forecast also was below the government's December outlook for 220 million bushels.

Corn stockpiles are now seen at 1.242 billion bushels, missing analyst estimates for 1.314 billion bushels and the previous month's forecast for 1.257 billion bushels.

Wheat stocks at the end of the grain's marketing year on May 31 were projected by USDA at 567 million bushels, below forecasts for 580 million and the December outlook for 571 million bushels.

Global ending stockpiles, however, were mixed with corn inventories worldwide projected at 296.4 million metric tons vs. trade expectations for 297.9 million tons and down from the previous month's forecast for 298.4 million tons.

USDA projected world soybean stocks at 103.5 million metric tons, which was above analyst forecasts for 101.7 million tons and December's estimate for 102.7 million tons.

Wheat inventories at the end of the 2023 marketing year were forecast by the agency at 268.4 million metric tons, just above the outlook for 268 million tons and the previous month's 267.3 million tons.

Prices also are being supported this morning by persistent dry weather in much of Argentina.

More than 60% of the country's soybean and corn-growing areas will remain stressed for at least the next 10 days, Commodity Weather Group said in a report.

Soybean futures for March delivery added 5 cents to $15.23 ½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was up $3.40 to $484.70 a short ton, while soy oil fell 0.83 cents to 62.42¢ a pound.

Corn futures gained 1¾ cents to $6.72 ¾ a bushel.

Wheat for March delivery added 1¼ cents to $7.44 a bushel while Kansas City futures rose 5¾ cents to $8.40 ¾ a bushel.

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2. Corn, Bean Export Sales Down Week-to-Week, USDA Says

Sales of corn and beans to overseas buyers declined week-to-week while wheat sales improved, according to data from USDA.

Corn sales in the seven days that ended on Jan. 5 declined 20% to 255,700 metric tons and were down 62% from the prior four-week average, the agency said in a report.

Mexico was the big buyer at 223,500 metric tons, followed by China at 138,600 tons and Canada at 33,400 tons. Nicaragua bought 6,100 tons and Taiwan was in for 5,200 tons.

The total would've been higher but an unnamed country canceled cargoes of 110,600 metric tons, and Honduras nixed shipments of 42,500 tons, USDA said.

Corn exports for the week dropped 49% to 387,100 metric tons.

Soybean sales were down 1% to 717,400 metric tons, marking a 41% drop from the prior four-week average, the government said.

China took 676,600 metric tons, Germany bought 142,600 tons, Mexico was in for 100,400 tons, Bangladesh purchased 57,200 tons, and Spain bought 46,900 tons from U.S. supplies.

An unknown destination canceled cargoes of 348,800 metric tons, the agency said.

Soybean exports totaled 1.62 million metric tons, a 10% increase from the previous week.

Wheat was the outlier as sales almost doubled to 90,800 metric tons, but were down 73% from the average, USDA said.

China purchased 66,000 metric tons, the Philippines bought 23,200 tons, Italy was in for 18,900 tons, South Africa took 7,700 tons, and Panama bought 6,000 tons.

An unnamed country canceled shipments of 43,000 metric tons and Thailand nixed cargoes of 3,600 tons, the agency said.

Wheat exports for the week were up week-to-week to 193,000 metric tons, the government said in its report.


3. Dry Weather Continues in Parts of Oklahoma and Texas

Fire conditions will be elevated in much of Oklahoma and parts of north Texas this weekend amid extremely dry weather, according to the National Weather Service.

"Increasing southerly winds will develop across the region on Saturday and Sunday resulting in a very high grassland fire danger across much of the area," the NWS said in a report early this morning.

In parts of eastern and central Illinois, meanwhile, scattered snow showers are forecast to continue through the morning, creating slick spots on roads until temperatures rise above freezing, the agency said.

Thunderstorms are forecast for the area starting Monday afternoon, though severe weather isn't expected.

Fog is an issue this morning in parts of central and northern Nebraska where visibility is down to less than a quarter mile, the NWS said. Driving conditions are hazardous due to low visibility this morning, the agency said.

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