What on earth is mother nature doing?
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Jodi:
Welcome to the Successful Farming Podcast. I'm Jodi Henke. Agriculture is constantly changing and so is our climate. Farmers have to become resilient to a higher frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods and need the right tools to make the right decisions. Joining me today is Eric Snodgrass. He is the principal atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions. And first of all, Eric, what's involved with your job? Are you a meteorologist, climatologist?
Eric:
All the above, yeah. So my job is basically to do a lot of what I would call operational weather forecasting. And I do that for the agricultural industry. And my role is to basically analyze and predict weather patterns and convey that information to our customer growers, to let them kind of smooth out the risk that comes from weather. It's a fun job. It's a new problem every day. And I do a lot of software development. I do a lot of, of course, weather analysis and forecasting. My specialty, what I'm really work hard on is to kind of really open up the avenues toward doing better, what we call, sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. In other words, predicting beyond about 10 days, and see if we can kind of shed some light on what those weather patterns are going to look like. So that's what I spend my time doing.
Jodi:
10 days, my gosh, I don't know. Some meteorologists can't get it right from day to day. You must have superpowers.
Eric:
I wouldn't say that. The reality of it is that using the best weather forecasting models that we have in existence, their accuracy at the 10-day level at matching the pattern is around 50 to 55%. So that's it, that's where we stand with our current limits of prediction.
Jodi:
Well, I know weather is an inexact science, mother nature does what she does. And she's been kind of what I would say bipolar lately, seasons are varying from year to year. But do you see a shift in weather patterns going forward? I listened to another climatologist say that growers should plan for an overall wetter climate punctuated by droughts.
Eric:
Yeah, that's a pretty fair assessment. So when we look back over the last 70 years or so, if we speak specifically about the Midwest to start, the longer term trend over the last 70 years is that from April to October, the primary corn and soybean belt over the last 70 years has added about five and a half inches of total rainfall. So what happened is if you compare this to what was going back in the fifties and sixties, we're considerably wetter over that time period. But speaking about drought, what we've also observed is that, I just have some numbers in my head for the states of Iowa and Illinois just as an example, we've actually tripled the frequency of those big rainfall events. So what that means is the number of times where we get more than two inches of rain in a day, the frequency of that happening has actually more than doubled in the last 40 years.
Eric:
So it's like you said, one of the things that we're dealing with, and there's just an overwhelming amount of anecdotal evidence. You ask any farmer in the Midwest and they'll tell you this, is that we're seeing more rainfall, but it's coming from much bigger events. And I just want to let everybody know that's in the data we collect from our weather stations, that's in the data we collect from the radar network. It's there, there's solid evidence that's occurring. What's interesting is in the other side of the Rocky Mountains, we're seeing the opposite effect. We're seeing more long duration heat events. We're seeing higher evaporation rates. And so it's interesting just given the size of the United States and the position of those mountains, we get a different effect in the longer term shifts of climate depending on which side of the continental divide you're on.
Jodi:
I read some time ago that the 100th meridian is shifting, which is also shifting climate dividing the country. Does that have something to do with that?
Eric:
It does. So that's just a piece of it. So the 100th meridian runs right through the High Plains. And why we define the 100th meridian so clearly in a lot of the research is we typically define it as the farthest eastward extent of what we call the rain shadow, which comes from the Rocky Mountains. So the flow goes over the mountains and on the down slope into the High Plains, we tend to have what we call a rain shadow effect. It's dry there. I mean, Denver, Colorado on average gets 15 inches of rain a year. Then you get all the way over to where I live in Champaign and we get 40. So there's a shift there.
Eric:
There's been a lot of research done to study is the 100th meridian where that rain shadow extends to. Is it now the 95th meridian? So they want to know if that's getting bigger or smaller. But I'll just say this, while there's some peer-reviewed publications that have presented some research, it's all ongoing. And I think we're watching it very carefully to see if that particular arridity boundary is moving. That's still a lot of what we're still trying to figure out. Good question.
Jodi:
Okay. You also mentioned that we're having more rain dumped on us at once rather than kind of being spread out. Are we seeing more in the spring and in the fall when we don't need it?
Eric:
Yeah, that's a good question.
Jodi:
I mean, we need it during those times, but not just dumped on us with flooding and so forth.
Eric:
Yeah. We want to have planting windows and harvesting windows. So it certainly feels, and a lot of folks that are going to listen to this right now are going to feel in the Midwest like it's this year we're having it. Because I mean, where I live in Illinois, my climate reporting district just had the second wettest October on record going back to 1893. So we look at that and we're like, "Oh my gosh, we just can't buy a time period." But I'm going to answer your question by telling you it's not just harvest and planting, it's the entire year. Every single season has seen a change in the frequency of those heavy precipitation events. Why we think about it more at harvest and at planting is because that's when we need it to not occur, so that's when we're observing it the most. Yeah.
Jodi:
Now, precipitation can also affect our temperatures, and nighttime temperatures seem to be trending higher. Is that a problem?
Eric:
Yeah. When we look back again over the last 70 years, our maximum temperatures here in the Midwest have remained relatively flat, there's no upward or downward trend. But the overnight lows are up two to three degrees on average. Now, with that, you also get an increase in moisture. In fact, those two things go hand in hand, and it's almost like a chicken and the egg kind of thing. The increase of moisture will also keep your overnight lows higher, but then that increased moisture also is going to be there to supply those clouds with more moisture to produce that rain we've been talking about.
Eric:
We've seen as a consequence of those warmer, overnight lows, more moisture in the atmosphere, one. And it's also extended the frost-free time period by about nine days over the last 50 years in the Midwest. So we are trying to weigh the benefits with the consequences. So it's a difficult thing to kind of match, but what I can present to you is what we've studied. And those are the numbers I think we should all be paying close attention to.
Jodi:
And why is that?
Eric:
It has a lot to do with overall ocean temperatures in the North Pacific warming. So the oceans are the great climate regulators of earth. And when we think about additional heat put into the earth atmosphere system, the ocean ends up taking about 90% of that. Where we're releasing a big shift is in the North Pacific ocean. And it's giving us this net effect of shifting the jet stream farther and farther to the north. And therefore the temperature gradient, that poleward temperature gradient, it moves too. So you put all that together, and what we end up getting is a little bit longer growing season that's wetter. So we look to the oceans for answers a lot.
Jodi:
Well, this past year was fairly normal for some growers and downright dry for others. So what is your take in how the climate affected production this past year?
Eric:
Yeah. What I was most concerned about at the beginning of this year was the fact that we had a lingering La Niña. And La Niña summers for the primary corn and soybean belt tend to increase our risk of drought development. And we already had drought in the Northern Plains because of the snow deficit that last winter gave us. So we had expansive drought in the Dakotas, parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa, just to start things off. If that precipitation didn't come in, we were going to be really running the risk of having expanding drought. And it didn't in parts of the Northern Plains, very hot, very dry through June and July.
Eric:
We saw soil moisture values going down to like 2%. 2% soil moisture at 16 inches, that's no good. While the eastern corn belt at the end of June and through July and August, we just got rain in spades. It just wouldn't stop raining at times here. So we seem to be divided, western corn belt versus eastern corn belt on who is getting the precipitation. Meanwhile, the Western United States was exceptionally dry and very, very hot. Now what was interesting is as we transitioned out of summer into early fall, the whole pattern broke down. The Northern Plains when they didn't want it got a bunch of rain. I mean, North and South Dakota when we look at the October statistics might have just had their second or third wettest October on record after having such a dry May, June, July, and part of August. So this was a season of kind of two halves, it just flip flopped on us on the end.
Jodi:
Yeah, that happened here. I mean, at the time we're recording this podcast, just within the last five days, we've had five inches of rain at my house. That's more rain than we've probably had all summer. I totally get that. So it looks like we're going to end to 2021 on perhaps a wetter note. Do you see that happening too?
Eric:
I do. And so with this La Niña that is continuing to restrengthen in the Pacific Ocean, what it tends to give us is a pretty active storm track. What we call the Colorado low comes out of Colorado and cuts through Illinois and Michigan, and also an active Ohio River Valley storm track. And that's generally a wetter pattern for much of the central and eastern corn belt. The northern corn belt, getting into Canadian Prairie, tend to be colder and snowier in their winters with La Niñas. So that means that this is probably going to be a wintertime where we do not see drought expanding. Which overall is a good thing, we don't want drought to expand at all in winter. Let's cure it in winters to get us into our next growing season. But I'll tell you this, what you have to watch carefully from now into next summer is that La Niña is probably going to fade starting in January of 2022. And if it fades into an El Niño by spring of 2022, we're looking at a much different growing season next year.
Jodi:
Eric, it's obviously going to be cold over the next few months at least we hope. You had talked about precipitation too, but what is your prediction for temperatures as well? And how do these affect the nutrients and pests and diseases in the soil?
Eric:
We actually want several good, hard freezes through winter. That very active freeze-thaw cycle is outstanding for our soil, it's outstanding for pest management, and it gets us into a growing season with the best possible situation. So you look historically, good, cold winters in the corn belt give us the best start for the next season. And if there's a La Niña brewing, we tend to have more of that than especially if there was an El Niño. So I'm looking forward to this upcoming winter, although I may have jinxed myself. I actually have two functioning snow blowers right now in my garage, which means maybe Central Illinois will miss everything because I'm prepared for it, but who knows?
Jodi:
If we get no snow, it's your fault.
Eric:
Yeah, that's right.
Jodi:
How do the freezing temperatures affect the pests and diseases in the soil?
Eric:
Yeah. So when we're capable of freezing a deep layer of that top soil, it does so many good things to kind of the biome of that soil. And one, it's very tough on insects, it's tough on things that live in that soil and don't want to have their temperatures down there, not just at freezing, but like at 20 Fahrenheit or even 10 Fahrenheit, which we can do at times. So we'll watch out for that to see if those good, hard freezes are going to do that. Plus the active freeze-thaw cycle, it causes the soil to expand and contract, that can cure some compaction issues that we may have had. And it also, believe it or not, kind of allows it to breathe and it moves the oxygen and the nitrogen through the soil throughout winter. So we like all of these things when we have a good, hard freezing winter.
Jodi:
So then under what conditions do you advise growers to fine tune their operations, such as additional soil sampling or tweaking their fertilizer applications?
Eric:
I'll be honest with you now. This is not an area of my expertise, but I talk to a lot of experts in this area. What I would tell you is those soil samples and getting them analyzed is mission critical to doing the right applications. If you know the content and get it in and get it analyzed, it's so valuable that the process of doing it and the front-end cost just pays itself off over and over again. I highly recommend that if the time is there and the conditions are right, sample as often as you can, get those samples off, because it allows you to do more prescriptive application the next year. 100% recommend that.
Jodi:
Are there any weather conditions that would require additional sampling or it would be a good idea to do some additional sampling? Or watch out what they're doing with fertilizer application, especially with the high cost of fertilizers right now.
Eric:
Yeah. Thinking about all of that, you're right. You'd want to do... Coming back to what I said, it's about efficiency, cost efficiency as well. So when we think about why we want to sample it, so that we do the right application at the right time. Now you asked about weather conditions. I think the only thing that weather would do to us in the fall is just preventing us from getting out there when it's not muck. You want to get in there and get a good sample and send it up to the lab and not send them mud. So it stays in the core. Well, basically they cook that and then they extract what's in there to know what's in your soil. So we don't want to send them a lot of mud. I would just hope that it finally stops raining for a lot of folks so they can get those soil samples done.
Jodi:
Okay. Well, let's talk about resiliency then. After all we've talked about and how things are changing, how do you advise farmers to adapt and be prepared for whatever mother nature is throwing at them?
Eric:
This is a broad term to throw out and I know that, but I would tell any grower that asks me about how weather is going to impact their resiliency. What I would tell them is anything that you could possibly do to manage soil health is mission critical to your farming success. It's going to give you the highest ROI over the longer time. Now, when I think about soil health, I think about the way that weather impacts it. So I'm concerned about erosion. I'm also concerned about that coming from both drought issues, where we blow off that topsoil, or I also think about it from when we have too much rainfall, where we wash it away. Anything that prevents the loss of topsoil, the loss of nutrients is going to be beneficial in the long run.
Eric:
Now I don't understand all of the different tillage practices out there nor am I an expert in cover crops, but I listen to a lot of people that are. And what they tend to find is that keeping more green stuff on the field longer holds on to everything, replaces nutrients, puts things back into the soil, and those adjustments and tillage practices also allow the soil to stay, well, to be honest, in bigger chunks rather than breaking it up into finer and finer pieces which can be of course eroded. So those are the things that I recommend anything. Read the articles of the extension offices coming from all of our major land-grant institutions, talk to your local agronomists, to people that you trust. Talk to those farmers you trust, say, "What are you doing to prevent loss of good soil health?" And those tend to be the things that I want everybody just to pay attention to and put into practice.
Jodi:
And how do farmers and ranchers and other producers keep up with what's going on in the climate and how they should be preparing for what may be ahead? Of course, none of us really knows, but how do they stay abreast of what the latest information is?
Eric:
Yeah. I hope they're listening to me. And the reason why is I talk about it every day, I produce some morning report that goes out completely for free to anybody, where we look at both the short term and long term weather. Do video analysis twice a week. I also look at global weather. My job at Nutrien is to become a trusted advisor that helps folks understand how weather is going to cause risk in their operations. And my personal goal is to stay ahead of it. I want you to never be surprised by a weather event because I'm watching it. I can keep you kind of abreast of what's going on. And therefore you can put into place either adaptation strategies or mitigation strategies to make sure that it has a minimal effect on your operation. That's my job at Nutrien.
Jodi:
And it's better to be proactive than reactive.
Eric:
Absolutely. And therefore, if you're proactive, what happens is that you spend less time and money on doing things afterward that you could have done before to be ready for it. So I completely agree.
Jodi:
Yeah. And it's also tough because the practices that maybe were done 10 years ago for the way the climate was then may not work now.
Eric:
That's true. But I still think taking the very long term view and trying to prepare now for what could come tomorrow is still wise based on the latest scientific evidence. And I'll just make a word of caution out there, when I do say scientific evidence, what I'm talking about here is peer-reviewed publications on the topic. Not talking about what somebody said, but instead what someone published, where they had to go through the peer review process. And that's the beauty of our national university system. They do this research, and we get to consume it and make those good decisions.
Jodi:
All right, Eric, is there anything else that you'd like to talk about?
Eric:
If I had to finish with one thing, I would say that this upcoming winter while we talked about North America, got to keep a close eye on the South American growing season. It's off to a fast start, especially in Mato Grosso, which is a big state in Brazil. You can fit five Iowas inside of Mato Grosso. But it's going to be Southern Brazil and Argentina, I think I'll have the biggest concern about going forward with drought issues because there's a La Niña. In six out of 10 years, there's a La Niña. They tend to be drier than normal in Southern Brazil and Argentina. That's a big possible both market story coming up, but also total production for South America could be impacted by that.
Jodi:
Thank you very much. That's Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions. For Successful Farming, I'm Jodi Henke.