USDA data is a nonevent Tuesday

DES MOINES, Iowa -- While the crops in South America get slightly bigger, the U.S. stockpiles of corn and soybean remain unchanged, according to the USDA.

As a result, the CME Group’s farm markets have remained slightly higher, much like they traded before the report’s release.

At midsession, the May corn futures are 3¾¢ higher at $3.76¾. July corn futures are 3¾¢ higher at $3.78¾.

May soybean futures are 8½¢ higher at $8.78¾. July soybean futures are 8¢ higher at $8.87.

May wheat futures are 2½¢ higher at $5.21¼.

May soymeal futures are $2.70 per short ton higher at $303.10. May soy oil futures are 0.05¢ cents lower at 27.49¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.31 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 324 points higher.

U.S. Ending Stocks

On Tuesday, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2019/2020 corn ending stocks at 1.892 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectations of 1.885 billion bushels and the USDA’s February estimate of 1.8982 billion.

For soybeans, the 2019/2020 U.S. ending stocks are estimated at 425 million bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 440 million and the government’s February estimate of 425 million.

The U.S. 2019/2020 wheat ending stocks estimate totaled 940 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 943 million and the USDA’s February estimate of 940 million.

World Ending Stocks

In its report, the USDA estimated the 2019/20 world corn ending stocks at 297.3 million metric tons (mmt.) vs. the trade’s expectation of 296.8 mmt. and the USDA’s February estimate of 296.8 mmt.

For soybeans, the world’s ending stocks estimate is 102.4 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 100.4 mmt. and the USDA’s February estimate of 98.9 mmt.

In its report, the USDA pegged the world’s 2019/2020 wheat ending stocks at 287.1 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 288.0 mmt. and the USDA’s February estimate of 288.0 mmt.

South America’s Production

On Tuesday, the USDA pegged the 2019/20 Brazilian corn crop at 101 million metric tons vs. the trade’s estimate of 100.9 mmt. and the USDA’s February estimate of 101.0 mmt.

For soybeans, Brazil’s 2019/2020 output is pegged at 126 mmt. vs. the trade’s estimate of 125 mmt., equal to the USDA’s February estimate.

In its report, the USDA pegged Argentina’s corn crop at 50.0 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 50.1 mmt. and the USDA’s February estimate of 50.0 mmt.

Argentina’s soybean crop is pegged at 54.0 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 53.4 mmt. and the USDA’s February estimate of 53.0 mmt.

Trade Reaction

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities says that todays numbers don't change much.

“If we pasted last months USDA’s crop report next to today’s crop report we would virtually see the same numbers. The exports were left unchanged on corn, while the trade anticipated a drop. This is a mild surprise, giving corn continued support with the all the grains heavily oversold and the funds short. Spot grains sales also giving the grains support on a day of separation from the volatility of the financial markets,” Roose says.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, agrees that there is not a lot of reaction to today’s numbers.

“The world soybean ending stocks are up a bit on the better South American crops and Argentina’s government moves to impose higher taxes on imports. Not much of a reaction here and why should there be with the crude oil crisis and the coronavirus crisis still going on. In fact, the report came and went with hardly a blip, so people were not even really paying attention,” Scoville says.

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that there is not much to say.

“With no WASDE surprises, markets will have to focus on planting weather in the U.S. and Chinese buying of soybeans anywhere in the world before they find some excitement. Prices of corn and soybeans do seem stretched to the downside, which can likely be attributed to the turmoil in outside markets, meaning buying by end users could pick up once COVID-19 fears subside,” Gilbertie says.