U.S. grain prices end the day lower | Thursday, March 24, 2022

May corn was down 9½¢ with December corn down 4¾¢. May soybean futures were 18¢ lower with November soybeans down 15¢. May Chicago wheat closed down 20¢, May Kansas City wheat closed down 16½¢, and May Minneapolis wheat closed down 6½¢.

Livestock prices closed the day higher. Live cattle futures finished the day 25¢ higher in the April contract, March feeder cattle closed up 67¢, and April lean hog futures closed the day 22¢ higher.

Crude oil is down $3.75, and the Dow futures are 348 points higher.

A relatively quiet day for grain prices. Recent moisture in the southern wheat Plains put some pressure on the wheat market. Weekly export sales this morning were disappointing and that added to the pressure early this morning. We did see spreads weaken a bit with the disappointing exports as some traders are thinking we might fall short of USDA export forecast.

Today, live cattle got a nice push higher with great export sales. For the past few trading days, live cattle have been consolidating a bit in here so we will see if we can finally break out or if we will continue to consolidate. Lean hog futures spent most of the day lower but saw some buying surface late in the day in the April contract. The bull spreads in hogs worked today, so we will see if this carries over into the Friday trade.

Fundamentals have not changed. We will likely continue to see decent support for grain prices on breaks. Traders are still very concerned over the war in Ukraine along with dry conditions in the U.S. The U.S. needs to grow an average or above-average size crop this fall.     

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10:45 a.m.

At mid-day May corn futures are down 8¢ to 9¢ with December corn futures down 5¢ to 6¢. May soybean futures are 8¢ to 9¢ lower with November futures down 4¢ to 5¢. May Chicago wheat is 11¢ lower, May Kansas City wheat is 9¢ lower, and May Minneapolis is 1¢ higher.

Livestock prices are mixed with live cattle 40¢ to 60¢ higher; feeder cattle are 80¢ to 90¢ higher. Lean hogs down 90¢ to $1.55 per hundred.

Crude oil is down $1.92 this morning and the Dow futures are 235 points higher.

It’s just a risk off day today after our recent run-up.

Weekly exports were a bit disappointing, but we did get an announcement of an old-crop soybean sale to an unknown destination for 318,000 metric tons. So demand is still pretty decent for U.S. soybeans.

We continue to see some lighter volume as it feels like more traders are choosing to sit on sidelines to watch vs. try to participate. We have seen some wild swings in the market the past few weeks, and this week the market feels a bit more stable.

Cash beef and hog prices are called lower today. We had great exports in beef this morning and pork was a bit disappointing, but long term fundamentals still look pretty good.

Keep a close eye on where we close today. We are still looking for a close in May corn above $7.63. 

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8:45 a.m.

U.S. grain prices are lower this morning as we see a pullback from recent strength. May corn futures are 6½¢ lower, May soybean futures are 8½¢ lower, May Chicago wheat is 16¢ lower, May Kansas City wheat futures are 12¢ lower, and May Minneapolis wheat futures are 6¢ lower.

Livestock prices are mixed this morning. Live cattle are 50¢ to 60¢ higher, feeder cattle are 80¢ to 90¢ higher, and lean hog futures are 5¢ to 20¢ lower.

Crude oil is down $1.40 this morning and the stock market is up 10 points to start off Thursday’s trade.

Export sales this morning were disappointing for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Coming in at the very bottom end of expectations and well off last week’s pace is adding a little pressure to the grain this morning. The marketing year for corn and soybeans will end August 31, 2022.

The war in Ukraine still rages on providing support to grain prices. Yesterday, the Ukraine Ag Minister suggested that half of the countries acres may not get planted. With Ukraine exporting a majority of the grain they produce to the rest of the world, this is a significant issue that should provide support for grain prices.

The past few sessions the cattle market seems to be putting in a bottom. We continue to see support on breaks, but any rally has been limited thus creating a consolidation. We seem to have plenty of cattle for the packers in the near term but long term is still a concern. Cattle exports this morning were very good! Hog prices exploded higher yesterday on renewed demand. Export sales were a little disappointing but long-term fundamentals look good as pork production worldwide feels like it is still contracting with high feed prices and disease pressure.

Editor’s Note: Cory Bratland is a chief grain strategist with Kluis Commodity Advisors.