Pockets of Brazil’s soybean crop faces losses

Yet, the relief is just for those who did not plant corn – only soybeans. There is not time enough to recover the coarse grain.

Curitiba consultancy AgRural has adjusted production in the state to 4.3 million metric tons of corn, which is 22% of what was forecast in December. Overall, the Brazilian first-corn crop, harvested in the summer, is expected to reach 25.6 million metric tons or 800,000 less than the previous estimate.

New cuts are likely in February if weather conditions do not improve in the state, according to AgRural.

Consultancy Trigo & Frainhas, which is also from Curitiba, estimates a fall from 5.8 million metric tons in the top first corn crop producer in Brazil to 4.8 million metric tons.

Luiz Pacheco, director of the consultancy, explains that there will be more losses in the southern and central part of the state than its northwest part, where yields are higher in the oldest corn and soybean area in the country. The drier areas in the south and southwest of Rio Grande do Sul, which borders Uruguay and Argentina, are traditionally rice and cattle ranching areas, but it is where the soybean border has expanded due to higher profitability.

Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, and Santa Catarina are the three largest hog and broiler producers. Potentially they can be affected by lack of supply during the year and can import corn from the U.S.

When asked about this possibility of U.S. imports, Pacheco said is too early to tell if that is going to happen. Santa Catarina hog producers always asked for easier corn imports.

“U.S. corn is still not competitive yet. Let’s wait and see what happens in the coming months,” said the analyst.

Soybean Crop

Safras & Mercado, a consultancy from Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, released new soybean crop estimates. The soybean estimates are down from 125.4 million metric tons to 123.5 million metric due to dry weather in both Rio Grande do Sul and Bahia states, but the output still would be 3.6% higher than the previous season.

“Early crops suffered the most. Some soybean losses are not reversible. The weather has to improve in order to recover those crops,” said Luiz Fernando Roque, Safras & Mercado analyst.

Marco Tavares is a grower from Capivari do Sul, in the central part of Rio Grande do Sul. He planted 518 acres of rice and 296 acres of soybeans.

“There was a delay of my soybean planting and there was more weed infestation. It is chaotic. For me, it is the worst drought in 15 years. I think 23% of the soybeans should be replanted,” says Tavares. He explained that those who planted beans in his region in early December are in trouble; those who planted later fare better.

About the corn situation in Ijui, key producing location in northwest Rio Grande do Sul, Indio dos Santos, a broker, says that losses of 30% are consolidating. “With 1.9 inches of rain on average last Friday, there is relief only for soybeans,” stated Indio.

In Lagoa Vermelha, the northeastern part of the state, sources say the soybean crop can be relieved. “Corn cannot recover, but a big part of soybeans can be recovered,” said agronomist Carlos Delavalle.