Argentina drought casts shadow over crop yields

Soybean and corn planting are well underway in South America, where the weather has been cooperative for some but difficult for others. Argentina’s growing regions have largely faced unfavorable weather thus far this planting season. 

For the third year in a row, La Niña conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific. La Niña supports drier weather across a large portion of Argentina and into southern Brazil, especially from August to December. Indeed, the August through December period of the past two years have been among the driest in over 30 years for Argentina with 2022 on track to follow this trend, according to data from WeatherTrends360. 

The dry conditions have resulted in a significant drought across Argentina, putting yields of soybean and corn crops at risk. Dry and cold weather has also taken a toll on the wheat crop in Argentina, the largest South American exporter of the grain. In fact, the situation is so dire that Argentina’s government is taking steps to allow wheat exporters to delay shipments to preserve domestic supply.

In Brazil, the weather has been mixed with parts of the country seeing favorable weather thus far this planting season, while others have been less favorable. Soil moistures have been plentiful across central Brazil with states like Mato Grosso seeing the fastest planting on record. Early season stalled fronts and plentiful rainfall set the stage for favorable soil moistures across the region. In southern Brazil, precipitation has been more mixed with some areas seeing acceptable soil moistures while others are quite dry. 

Looking ahead to the week-ending Nov. 12, the abnormally dry conditions are expected to continue in Argentina. However, there will be some showers moving in around the mid-to-latter half of the week, although this doesn’t appear to be indicative of a pattern change, just a much-needed reprieve from the bone-dry conditions of late. Chances for precipitation will extend up across southern and central Brazil with the wettest weather favored for central portions of Brazil. Any precipitation is certainly better than none, but this event is unlikely to make a significant dent in Argentina’s drought.

It is colder than normal across the growing regions of Brazil, where this is forecast to be one of the coldest second weeks of November in over 30 years, according to data from WeatherTrends360. Temperatures in Argentina will be warmer than normal.

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