3 Big Things Today, January 9, 2023

1. Soybean Futures Slightly Higher Overnight

Soybean futures were modestly higher in overnight trading amid persistent dry weather in parts of Argentina.

The forecast for crop weather in Argentina remains dry after weeks of little precipitation in the South American country.

Dry weather will continue this the first part of the week, which will allow moisture levels to decline further, according to forecaster Maxar. Improvement may be limited late this week.

Prices also may be rising on cautious optimism that demand for soybeans in China, the world's largest importer, will return after COVID restrictions were eased and visitors were allowed to return to some areas.

China's Lunar New Year holiday begins on Jan. 21 and lasts through Jan. 27 this year, encouraging travelers to head to the Asian nation.

Wheat futures were up slightly as dry weather continues in the U.S. southern Plains.

Little to no rain has fallen in southwestern Kansas or the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles in at least the past two weeks, according to the National Weather Service's precipitation page.

About 84.5% of Kansas, the biggest producer of hard-red winter wheat, is suffering from drought conditions, little changed from 85.6% a week earlier, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

In Oklahoma, almost 90% of the state is seeing drought, unchanged week-to-week, the monitor said.

Soybean futures for March delivery rose 4¼¢ to $14.96 ¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was down $5 to $472.60 a short ton and soy oil added 0.95¢ to 64.12¢ a pound.

Corn futures fell ¼¢ to $6.53 ¾ a bushel.

Wheat rose 2 ½ ¢ to $7.46 a bushel while Kansas City futures gained 2¼¢ to $8.34 ¼ a bushel.

2. Investors Bump Net-Longs in Corn to Near Two-Month High

Money managers raised their net-long positions — bets on higher prices — in corn and soybeans last week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Investors held a net-199,954 futures contracts in corn in the seven days that ended on Jan. 3, the CFTC said in a report.

That's up from 163,666 contracts a week earlier and the highest level since Nov. 8.

Speculators held 142,864 soybean futures contracts last week, up from 129,244 contracts the previous week, marking the largest bullish position since June 21, the government said.

In wheat, investors held a net-1,153 hard-red winter wheat contracts on Jan. 3, down slightly from 1,336 contracts a week earlier.

Hedge funds and other large investment firms were less bearish on soft-red winter wheat, holding a net-short position — bets on lower prices — of 52,820 contracts.

That's down from 56,245 contracts a week earlier and was the smallest bearish position since Nov. 15, the CFTC said in its report.

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.

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3. Freezing Drizzle Forecast For Parts of Western Wisconsin

Freezing drizzle is possible in western Wisconsin late tonight into early Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.

"Areas of freezing fog have developed" in northwestern Wisconsin and northeastern Minnesota, the NWS said in a report early this morning. "As a result, visibilities may drop to less than a half-mile or less in spots."

Light snow and more freezing drizzle is expected Tuesday into Thursday, the agency said.

In eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, meanwhile, a cold front is expected to move through the area starting Wednesday evening. Thunderstorms are possible with the storm, though severe weather will be limited, the NWS said.