3 Big Things Today, January 5, 2023

1. Wheat Futures Higher in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures were higher in overnight trading, rebounding from two-week lows, amid dry weather in U.S. growing areas and as Ukraine shifts tactics in attempt to export more agricultural products.

No rain is expected for southwest Kansas or the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles through the next six days, according to the National Weather Service.

Temperatures also are expected to fall into the teens overnight tonight before rising into the 70s Fahrenheit tomorrow. Temperatures will fall below freezing overnight for the next week, NWS data shows.

Ukraine said Wednesday that it will focus on trying to get vessels carrying agricultural products inspected faster as part of a program to export grains rather than ship from more ports, Reuters reported.

Shipments are allowed from ports in Ukraine under the so-called Black Sea Grain initiative, which was originally signed in July and renewed in November. All cargoes are inspected in Turkey. Ukraine has accused Russia of intentionally slowing the inspection process, an accusation that Russia has denied.

Three more ships carrying corn and soybeans left Ukraine today while four vessels carrying corn and sunflower meal departed yesterday, according to data from the United Nations.

Wheat rose 6½¢ to $7.51 ¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade while Kansas City futures gained 6¾¢ to $8.47 ½ a bushel.

Corn futures were up 3¢ to $6.56 ¾ a bushel in overnight trading.

Soybean futures for March delivery rose 1¢ to $14.84 ½ a bushel. Soymeal was down $2.90 to $459.80 a short ton and soy oil was up 0.91¢ to 63.76¢ a pound.

2. Topsoil Moisture in Kansas Little Changed From End of November

Topsoil moisture in Kansas, the biggest producer of hard-red winter wheat in the U.S., was little changed through Jan. 1 from the last reading at the end of November, according to data from USDA.

About 43% of the state was very short on topsoil moisture and 26% was short on Jan. 1, the agency said in a report on state news yesterday. Twenty-nine percent had adequate topsoil moisture and 2% had a surplus.

That compares with 48% very short, 25% short, 26% adequate, and a 1% surplus on Nov. 29, the last time the government issued a crop progress report.

Subsoil moisture was rated 47% very short, 34% short, 18% adequate, and 1% surplus at the start of the year. That compares with 54% very short, 28% short and 18% adequate at the end of November.

It wasn't very good news for hard-red winter wheat in Oklahoma, the second-largest grower of the variety, as only 0.16 inches of rain fell in the panhandle last month, the Ag Department said.

Some 98% of Oklahoma is now either abnormally dry or seeing drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, up 3 percentage points from the same point last year.

While USDA didn't give exact figures, it said topsoil and subsoil moisture in the state was "mostly adequate to short."

In Arkansas, where soft-red winter wheat is grown, moisture conditions improved through the month of December. Topsoil moisture was 2% short, 38% adequate, and 60% surplus, the agency said.

That's an improvement from the end of November when moisture levels were 2% very short, 10% short, 73% adequate, and 15% surplus, USDA said in its report.

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3. Light Snow Forecast For Parts of Iowa and Illinois

Light snow is expected in parts of east-central Iowa into north Illinois this morning and afternoon, according to the National Weather Service.

Accumulations will be light at less than an inch, the NWS said in a report early this morning. Snow will taper off this evening before returning on Saturday, though it's too early to know how much more will fall over the weekend, the agency said.

In the southern Plains, meanwhile, strong winds are expected in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles tomorrow afternoon.

Sustained winds will be as high as 25 mph with gusts of up to 35 to 40 mph forecast for the region, the NWS said.